Probabilities in Orthopedics |

Probabilities in Orthopedics

Just a random posting. Let’s talk about probabilities in orthopedics.

Note – just my opinion,  send me your percentages – tiger@tigerbuford.com.


0% – probability that your new orthopedic product idea will not need refinement in order to be to be useful in the market.

1% – probability that your patent will have real value in the future.

3% – probability that you will work in a startup at some point during your career

5% – probability of getting a job offer after 2 interviews.

5.26% – probability for an 80 year old American to have at least one for total hip replacement.

10% – probability of a new product presentation to a surgeon resulting in a scheduled first case.

10.38% – probability for an 80 year old American to have at least one for total knee replacement.

14% – probability of an orthopedic resident being female.

15% – probability that a total hip will be revised in the US.

20% – probability of a new product hands-on training (or VR training) to a surgeon resulting in a scheduled first case.

34% – probability that an orthopedic surgeon in the US works on adult knees or arthroscopy (most common specialties).

50% – probability of a big ortho acquisition in 2021 (may involve NUVA, Globus, S+N).

60% – probability that you will have a new employer within 3 years.

68% – probability of all US orthopedics being performed in an ASC by 2025.

75% – probability that ortho companies will hire more non-mechanical engineers in 2021 (eg: electrical, software, optics/vision, mechatronics).

80% – probability of the birth of a new orthopedic startup in the software space each month in 2021.

95% – probability of a Medical Sales College graduate getting a job offer at graduation.

98% – probability that the stock price of the big orthos will rise significantly in the next few years (They have learned to grow revenue with fewer headcount and a more distributed workforce. Ironically, Covid will be a financial blessing for the big orthos).

100% – probability of investing in your physical and metal health will improve your life.  “Invest in yourself first.”