Probabilities in Orthopedics |
Probabilities in Orthopedics
Just a random posting. Let’s talk about probabilities in orthopedics.
Note – just my opinion, send me your percentages – firstname.lastname@example.org.
0% – probability that your new orthopedic product idea is perfect “as is” and will not need refinement in order to be to be useful in the market.
1% – probability that your patent will have real value in the future.
3% – probability that you will
work in a startup at some point during your career 5% – probability of getting a job offer after 2 interviews.
10% – probability of a new product presentation to a surgeon resulting in a scheduled first case.
14% – probability of an orthopedic resident being female.
15% – probability that a total hip will be revised in the US.
20% – probability of a new product hands-on training (or VR training) to a surgeon resulting in a scheduled first case.
34% – probability that an orthopedic surgeon in the US works on adult knees or arthroscopy (most common specialties).
50% – probability of a big ortho acquisition in 2021 (may involve NUVA, Globus, S+N).
60% – probability that you will have a new employer within 3 years.
68% – probability of all US orthopedics being performed in an ASC by 2025.
75% – probability that ortho companies will hire more non-mechanical engineers in 2021 (eg: electrical, software, optics/vision, mechatronics).
80% – probability of the birth of a new orthopedic startup in the software space each month in 2021.
98% – probability that the stock price of the big orthos will rise significantly in the next few years (They have learned to grow revenue with fewer headcount and a more distributed workforce. Ironically, Covid will be a financial blessing for the big orthos).
100% – probability of investing in your physical and metal health will improve your life. “Invest in yourself first.”
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