You’ve likely seen virga—rain that falls but never hits the ground. It’s a striking sight, especially at sunrise or sunset, as tons of water evaporate mid-air, never reaching its destination. In Latin, “virga” means “twig” or “branch,” a fitting name for something that promises much but delivers little.
Statistically, most ortho startups fail. They never reach market, or profitability or an exit. These are Virga startups.
Some ortho startups thrive. They go on to win marketshare, become profitable, and return a multiple of capital to the investors.These are Rain startups.
Startups with Class III devices have a long long road of clinicals, regulatory processes and extended capital risk. They usually become Virga startups.
On the other hand, startups with Class II devices have a better chance of reaching the market. They can become Rain startups.
Class III Devices = high chance of Virga
In orthopedics, I see Class III devices as virga. They start with big potential, aiming for the gold standard of PMA clearance—a massive barrier to entry for competitors. But too often, after a decade and $100M spent on PMA/IDE clinical trials, they fizzle out. The FDA’s shift...
